Dr. Francisco Zagmutt

Dr. Francisco Zagmutt

Dr. Francisco J. Zagmutt is a managing director at EpiX Analytics, where he uses innovative risk modeling and analytics methods to help clients make key decisions under uncertainty.

Francisco has led projects in a wide variety of industries and organizations on every continent, giving him a broad viewpoint on the use of decision-analytical methods in different applications. With this unique perspective, Francisco brings novel analytical solutions that can provide a competitive advantage to clients. Francisco has led consulting projects ranging from the strategic forecasting and optimization of inventory under high uncertainty, to the modeling of catastrophic events, to strategic staffing optimization while also continuing his research in health outcomes research, epidemic modeling, and the modeling of food safety risks. Francisco was initially exposed to analytics and risk modeling methods via his training in epidemiological modeling. While working as a researcher at Colorado State University, Francisco co-developed a disease spread simulation model, currently named ADSM/NAVADMC that is now used by multiple agencies worldwide to evaluate transboundary disease policies. Francisco then applied epidemic models to actuarial calculations, and developed models to quantify food safety risks, which ultimately led him to apply modeling applications to areas well beyond the fields of epidemiology and public health.

Francisco has developed a well-known reputation in the risk analysis community for his teaching abilities and for his clarity when communicating complex risk assessment principles to a broad audience, especially to senior management. In addition to teaching several public and private courses with EpiX, Francisco is the main instructor in the Quantitative Risks Analysis training track organized in collaboration between EpiX and JIFSAN. Francisco lectures in Risk Management Theory and Application at the Colorado State University College of Business, and also serves as affiliate faculty at Colorado State University.

Dr. Zagmutt has presented his work and given keynote speeches at international conferences, published articles in a number of international peer-reviewed journals, and is the author of two risk analysis book chapters. He holds a DVM from the University of Chile, a Masters from UC Davis, and a PhD from Colorado State University.  




Representative publications

  1. Groenendaal H., Zagmutt F.J. (2018) Stochastic Modeling in Health Economics and Outcomes Research: Common Mistakes and How to Avoid Them. ISPOR Values & Outcomes SPOTLIGHT March/April 2018, Vol 4 No. 2: 30-33.
  2. Pouzou JG, Costard S, Zagmutt F.J. (2018) Probabilistic assessment of dietary exposure to heterocyclic amines and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from consumption of meats and breads in the United States. Food Chem. Toxicol. 2018 Apr. 114:361-374. doi: 10.1016/j.fct.2018.02.004.
  3. Wang T., Zagmutt, F., Groenendaal H., (2017) A Breath of Better Decisions and Success. Solver-International, Sep. 2017:12-21.
  4. Costard S, Espejo L, Groenendaal H, Zagmutt F.J. (2017) Outbreak-Related Disease Burden Associated with Consumption of Unpasteurized Cow's Milk and Cheese, United States, 2009-2014. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2017 Jun. 23(6):957-964. doi: 10.3201/eid2306.151603.
  5. Zagmutt F.J., Schoenbaum M.A., Hill A.E (2016) The Impact of Population, Contact, and Spatial Heterogeneity on Epidemic Model Predictions. Risk Analysis. 36(5): 939:53.
  6. Zagmutt F.J. & Carroll, C (2015) Meta-analysis of adverse events in recent randomized clinical trials for dimethyl fumarate, glatiramer acetate, and teriflunomide for the treatment of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. Int J Neurosci. 125(11): 798–807.
  7. Costard S, Zagmutt F.J., Porphyre T, Pfeiffer DU, (2015) Small-scale pig farmers' behavior, silent release of African swine fever-virus and consequences for disease spread. Sci. Rep. 2015 Nov. 27, 5:17074.doi: 10.1038/srep17074.
  8. Espejo L.A., Costard S, Zagmutt F.J. (2015) Modelling canine leishmaniasis spread to non-endemic areas of Europe. Epidemiology and infection. 143(9):1936-49.
  9. Cobb SP, Pharo H, Stone M, Groenendaal H, Zagmutt F.J. (2015) Quantitative risk assessment of the likelihood of introducing porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus into New Zealand through the importation of pig meat. Rev. Sci. Tech. 2015 Dec. 34(3):961-75.
  10. Zagmutt F.J., Sempier, S. H., and Hanson, T. R. (2013) Disease spread models to estimate highly uncertain emerging diseases losses for animal agriculture insurance policies: an application to the U.S. farm-raised catfish industry. Risk Analysis. 33(10):1924-37.
  11. Zagmutt F.J. & Tarrants M.L. (2012) Indirect comparisons of Adverse Events and Dropout Rates in Early Parkinson’s Disease Trials of Pramipexole, Ropinirole, and Rasagiline. Int J Neurosci. 122 (7): 345-53.
  12. Groenendaal H, Bush M, Hodge FL, Dykstra K, Mudd P, Rajapakse A, Zagmutt F.J. (2011), Quantitative Risk Analysis: Improving Decision Making by Quantifying Uncertainty. American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists Magazine, April 2011.
  13. Navarro, I., and Zagmutt F.J. (2008) Chemical Health risks. In: Urban Water Security: Managing Risks. Jimenez B., and Rose J.B. (Eds.) Paris.
  14. Groenendaal H. and Zagmutt F.J. (2008), Scenarios analysis of changes in consumption of dairy products due to a hypothetical causal link between Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis and Crohn's Disease. J Dairy Sci. 91(8):3245-58.
  15. Zagmutt F.J. (2008) Optimisation in Risk Analysis. In: Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (3rd Edition). Vose, D. (Ed). Wiley. PP. 435-444.
  16. Harvey N., Reeves A., Schoenbaum M.A., Zagmutt F.J., Dubé C., Hill A.E., Corso B. A., McNab W.B., Cartwright C.I., and Salman, M.D. (2007) The North American Animal Disease Spread Model: A simulation model to assist decision making in evaluating animal disease incursions. Prev. Vet. Med. 82: 176-197.


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